Russia’s invasion of Ukrain was clearly a stark act. And reminder of the good old Cold War.
In the upheaval of the last few days, the scare, the anger, the worry for friends and family we may have in the region, the question in everybody’s heads, implicitly or explicitly is: Why? And: why now?
Beyond geopolitical standard power games, the ego of a hyper rich dictator days gone crazy and paranoid and craving for the ‘good old times’ of his younger to come back: There must be more to it. That’s what it feels like.
And there may potentially indeed be more to that.
Aspects that are both, blood curdling and – dare I say it – visionary at the same time. And maybe, just maybe, the first glimpse of what Climate Change impacts can lead to at their worst.
To start out with, it is important to have the following facts (all fact checked by Snopes, figures typically as per 2020):
Ukraine’s Natural Resources:
- 1st in Europe in proven recoverable reserves of uranium ores
- 2nd in Europe and 10th in the world in terms of titanium ore reserves
[Norway scores 1st in Europe] - 2nd in the world in terms of explored reserves of manganese ores
- 2nd largest iron ore reserves in the world
- 3rd in Europe (13th place in the world) in shale gas reserves
- 8th in the world in coal reserves
Ukraine’s Agriculture:
- 1st in Europe in terms of arable land area.
- 3rd in the world by the area of black soil (25% of world’s volume)
- 1st in the world in exports of sunflower and sunflower oil.
- 4th in the world in barley production and 4th place in barley exports
- 5th largest producer and 4th largest exporter of corn in the world
- 3rd largest producer of potatoes in the world.
- 4th largest rye producer in the world
- 5th in the world in bee production (75,000 tons).
- 5th in the world in wheat exports.
- In the top 10 in the world in the production of chicken eggs
With this, Ukraine can meet the food needs of 600 million people.
Ukraine’s Industry:
- 2nd in Europe and 4th largest natural gas pipeline system in the world
- 2nd largest in Europe and 7th largest in the world in terms of installed capacity of nuclear power plants.
- Among the leaders in Europe and in the world in terms of rail network length over 22’000km.
- 5th largest iron exporter in the world.
- 3rd in the world in clay exports.
- 5th in the world in titanium exports.
- 12th in the world in exports of defence industry products.
- 12th largest steel producer in the world
With that in mind, and the knowledge that resources will likely be increasingly scarce as we transition to adapt to the new Climate Changed reality: beyond aspirations of reviving the USSR of old, there are sufficient reasons to invade a place like Ukraine for a power-hungry despot. Resources are power after all. If not already now, then in a couple or so of short decades.
Or to put it with the words of commentator and author Umair Haque:
Whomever controls the resources controls a dying planet. Everything on it. Politics, economics, culture, society, money, people. Putin’s game is what happens as the planet dies — we all fight bitterly for what is left, in bands of predators and packs of wolves, unless we come together to begin and build something better.
Umair Haque in “Why a New Era of War is Dawning — And What Putin Really Wants“.
In Haque’s view, Western leaders lack the far sightedness to not only see the problem, but also recognise Putin’s long game. And their willingness to ensure future welfaire at the cost of short-term expenses (read: sanctions with teeth).
I genuinely hope Haque is wrong.
But if not, we’ve just got thrown into a truly blood-curdling roller coaster ride.
