For insights on the potential for a deep policy response to the Climate Crisis: Check out the 3-part series on the ‘Inevitable Policy Response‘.
It is end of March / early April 2020 as I write this. Corona (Covid19) increases its grip onto the world. Country by country, continent by continent: Governments kick into gear and enforce what only a few weeks ago would have been considered ‘anti-democratic’ and draconian measures:
- People are prevented from existing their houses (Canton of Uri, Switzerland, briefly prohibited all over 65s to leave their house under any circumstances; Canton Ticino, Switzerland, still does not allow over 65s to do their own grocery shopping);
- Elections and referenda are being postponed (France, UK, US, Switzerland),
- Shops selling anything else than basic supplies, are closed;
- So are restaurants, entertainment venues of all types, including public spaces such as playgrounds.
What initially was by and large only perceived to be a somewhat more severe case of The Yearly Flu, soon turned out to be a much more serious issue: a virus spreading with surprising effectiveness and speed – and consequently putting an enormous strain on all, including the most sophisticated, health care systems.
Government responses have varied from initially laid back to increasingly severe; from nonchalant at the beginning to panicky later on; from head-in-the-sand in the at the start to adopting early measures assuming exponential contagion rates.
It is fair to say, that only very, very few governments and countries had invested thorough (any) effort in preparing for a pandemic – with exception of those with prior first-hand experience (SARS, Ebole etc). And it showed.
A rather quite interesting (German only) article by the Swiss ‘Neue Zuercher Zeitung’ newspaper analysed the at least initially successful control of the Covid19 in Singapore, and outlined the following factors as a recipe for success to get an entire population to collaborate effectively and efficiently:
-
Measures
applied for Corona are a direct learning from the 2002/3
SARS crisis.
- One of those is Contact-Tracing-Management where all people in contact with a ‘positive’ tested individual are tracked and isolated. Immediately, starting with the first case; and consistently, for every case thereafter. This is coupled with a stringent quarantine system, as well as equally strict measures and consequences for the case of infringement against imposed quarantine.
- Quick reaction and therefore early preventive measures “in the case of”. In the concrete case, temperatures of people arriving in Singapore were habitually measures weeks before the actual first case in the country was identified. And critical medical supplies where immediately acquired and organised.
- Pro-active, in time, accurate and appropriate information by the government directly: via a dedicated website with latest news, recommendations etc.
But that’s not all of it: in Singapore, citizens fully trust their government – and for now there have not been major scandals rocking the foundations of this trust. Further, key information channels and media are heavy influenced by the government. And lastly: Singaporeans tend to do as the government says: social compliance enforcement is reasonably stringent.
If that will hold as true for Singapore’s 2nd wave of infections as it did for the 1st wave – that needs to be seen.
By and large, all other countries so far affected by the Covid19 pandemic have failed the test. It is, and continues to be, a rather painful experience for everyone: those in governments; those that have or still may lose loved ones; and every one else for the cuts into every day habits – and the tangible risks to livelihoods as a consequence of the lock downs.
The big elephant in the room though is: Could such a drastic, deep going and wide reaching policy response as we all are experiencing in the present, happen again? And if so, when and why? And what could the order of magnitude possibly be like?
The most surprising insight from the Covid19 crisis maybe the fact that governments, if indeed they have to, and if indeed there is short-termed and immediate incentive for and pressure on them, absolutely can and are willing to take drastic measures.
That alone is a rather insightful learning – and one that typically only ever was attributed to centralised, and typically also non-democratic countries. That both, mature as well as newer democracies can be just as fast and drastic is indeed nearly against all expectations.
Further, the fact that rapid and drastic measures are being taken despite the invariably resulting economic woes impacting entire sectors of the population, as well as the national economy, is yet again another learning that few would have guessed could be a possible option at all.
So yes, in theory such a drastic policy response could happen if the appropriate circumstances arise, and the ‘right’ incentives for those in power – usually in the form of significant risk to their country and its population, and therefore huge public pressure from ALL political sides – are in place.
But: might it really happen again?
What would those ‘appropriate’ circumstances and ‘right’ incentives be? How much of a short-term emergency does need to raise its ugly head for that to be possible again in the context of the Climate Emergency?
Climate change, but also social inequalities, at this point have not developed into the short-termed emergencies that likely would trigger such a drastic response by governments and legislators.
It is telling that in Australia neither the fires nor the subsequent floods did quite the same job in kicking politicians and legislators into gear – where as the immediately afterwards occurring Corona threat totally did.
Why is that?
The good news is that by all intents and purposes: desperately needed policy action by governments and legislators in regards to the Climate Crisis is absolutely possible. The present Covid19 pandemic crisis is a case in point.
The bad news is, that most likely it won’t happen until the proverbial knife is at our throat. The current Corona pandemic and the impact it has on everyone’s life is just a very sad prequel of much tougher measures still waiting for us.
The earlier we realise that, the earlier we can take the first measures, and the ‘flatter’ we can turn out that curve to be.
Going forward, may we, global citizens, in solidarity, together with our governments, be wise enough not to continue our ignorance but learn this lesson of how quickly life can change significantly.
