At Shirahime, we have worked quite extensively over the last few months on the development of fashion industry scenarios beyond the 2020 time frame, going as far as 2045.
We mentioned for example Shell as one that used this approach to suit their own goals.
A much more interesting approach, and very insightful in terms of methodology, but also how tangible the results are presented, is Siemens’ work on Future Cities: it illustrates rather well the lifestyles that may dominate, the technologies that could influence our daily lives, and how architecture and urban planning may change in accordance. Part of their results are summarised in their Green Cities report series.
More importantly however, it gives us equally a glimpse of what may become relevant for us as individuals, as families and – here the link to fashion and textiles – as consumers.
Siemens’ ‘Future Life’ video, as presented the The Crystal in London.
In their scenario work, Siemens identified – unsurprisingly – the following key influencing factors of our future lives, which are:
- demographic change
- urbanisation
- climate change
- globalisation
These means that, when taken together, the demands that these developments put on supplying cities, will result in the some of the main challenges being around:
- energy supply
- water supply
- food supply
- quality of life: specifically living spaces and work
- health and health care
On the one hand, the timely and reliable logistics, as well as legislative and commercial means of regulating/incentivising markets in this context offer equally some important challenges.
While so far there is hardly anything surprising in what Siemen’s primary insights are, when combined with the exhibition at the London’s Crystal, mostly showing off technology at our finger tips that will be of relevance in the future, the whole image becomes a lot more tangible:
- Water: access to drinkable water via e.g. rainwater harvesting, waste water recycling, desalination, reducing water use and improved water management.
- Energy: concepts such as decentralised and centralised energy generation, smart grids, energy storage and uptake of renewables, modern insulation, and localised energy generation.
- Food: distances will play a more relevant role, and with the sprawling of cities, technologies, approaches and crops that can be grown at consumption point, under possibly futuristic conditions (high-rising multi-layered city farms etc.), seem to be the most feasible approach.
- Health Care: a growing and aging population puts a new set of strains onto healthcare systems. Approaches such as personalised medicine, preventive treatment and healthy lifestyles are shown in the context of a city with ever less green space, more and higher buildings and vaster dimensions.
Future Cities and the individual: Consumer context
- People will experience more fluidity between home/private time and work time. The boundaries that have already nearly disappeared in the present, will further disappear thanks to the technological means of tapping into corporate infrastructure from remote locations. On the one hand, this will come with new liberties – and likely more goal driven rather then schedule driven job specs – but also with new challenges: the dissolution of office hours will require the individual to make a more concerted effort to create down time for personal recovery and leisure. Technology will start to incorporate means by which this can be achieved artificially, such as signal blockers, ‘office hour’ schedules for corporate equipment used at home etc.
- Home space will become smaller, and in need of multi-purpose usage. As cities grow, real estate value will increase, and hence property prices will raise quicker than salaries. As a consequence, families will be required to live in smaller apartments and houses then is currently the case. At the same time, architectural and technological features of living spaces will allow for a more flexible and versatile multi-purpose usage, inside as well as e.g. within a block of flats or a residency areas.
Smaller homes will additionally require less energy per person. As a consequence, the cities’ residential areas will become denser populated, but at the same time their energy consumption will remain overall stable despite the increase in population.
Living spaces will become standardised in their basic layout and setup, and personalisation takes place through furniture, technical and IT equipment, interior decoration. In essence, a flat can be replicated identically at a new location, as the basic draft of the rooms remains the same.
While it is technically possible not to live in the city, quality of life is over all substantially higher down town than in rural areas at the outskirts of a city. Infrastructure in rural and suburban areas is being neglected demotivating people to move away and take population pressure off the metropolitan areas. - Residential areas will be interspersed with ‘productive areas’, containing food growing areas as well as manufacturing and office job facilities. As transport systems will congest over their capacity otherwise, and transport prices increase and make downtown locations interesting even for traditionally agricultural activities, citizens will require basic needs to be covered at closer by locations. This will further contribute to the densing of cities, and increased real estate prices. Production efficiency hence is key.
- Key resources will increasingly be shared. This encompasses specifically green areas, all types of transport (bike, e-car, season tickets for public transport facilities, roller skates …), but also production and office facilities, private storage facilities (think: storage locker being the standard), and then finally, equipment of all kinds that is not used on a daily basis or over long periods of time: tools, occasion wear, suit cases, children’s clothes etc.
- Very generally speaking, anything that relates to the daily needs of the population will become decentralised, with shops, crop growing and manufacturing areas in close vicinity to residential areas. The opposite is true for basic functions that are not tied to a specific location. Centralised ‘hubs’ will administer the technical infrastructure and information that allows remote work/service delivery. This will apply to business as much as to government an any other type of citizen or economic need.
- Geographical location of the workforce will increasingly be irrelevant, and mostly tied to the delivery schedules of businesses and government entities. The workforce will be increasingly globalised in character, although local cities will not reflect this in their image – less people will move internationally for work, but instead just execute their work from wherever they’re located at in first place.
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Further information on Siemens’ Future Cities scenarios and the underlying scientific data:
- Exhibition at The Crystal in London.
- Explaining the Future: Scientific knowledge around peak oil, peak water food shortages etc
- “Life in 2050”, Ulrich Eberl (2011), Beltz & Gelberg, Weinheim, Germany. ISBN 978-3-407-75357-1
- ‘Tomorrow’s Cities‘ on BBC.
