Scenario Planning: How useful is it, practically speaking?

The last couple of months have been dedicated to the exploration of Scenario Planning in a variety of aspects. Not the least through a workshop we ran at the Textile Exchange Conference last month.
As part of said workshop, we ran a small survey among workshop participants in order to find out more about their perception of and experience with Scenario Planning.

Survey Questions

Out of a total of 24 participants, 20 answered the brief survey. The survey consisted of the following 4 questions:

1. Have you heard about Scenario Planning before the workshop?
   (yes / no)
2. On a scale from 1 [low] to 4 [high]:
   What is your expertise with Scenario Planning?
3. On a scale from 1 [low] to 4 [high]:
   How useful do you think Scenario Planning is?
4. Is Scenario planning, or would it be, useful for your strategic planning?
   (yes / not)

The results of the survey – which give a good, while not statistically relevant, insight into how Scenario Planning is being perceived – are detailed in the remainder of this blog post.

Survey Results

Question 1: Have you heard about Scenario Planning before the workshop?
Approximately two thirds of participants had not heard as of yet of Scenario Planning as a method.
This is in as far interesting because, typically, had the same question been asked about forecasting (rather then scenarios) the ratio of ‘yes’ answers had likely been close to 100%.

Once again, what is the difference between forecasting and Scenario Planning?

• Forecasting – very simplified – attempts to predict the future, almost always based on extrapolating from the present.
• Scenario Planning – even much more simplified – is “an admission that we are not very good at making predictions, so rather than forecasting just one outcome, one imagines a few different outcomes (or ‘futures’).” (Source) These alternative business landscapes can then be explored to understand how key elements affecting the business might change. And as a consequence how the business can get into gear to get ready.

Question 2: On a scale from 1 (low) to 4 (high) – What is your expertise with Scenario Planning?
Again, around two thirds of workshop participants had so far never, or not to any relevant extent, actively participated in Scenario Work activities.
On the other hand, the majority of those that presumably had already encountered the method previous to the workshop (cf. 1st question), have acquired some expertise with it, which in some cases seems to be quite extensive..

Question 3: On a scale from 1 (low) to 4 (high) – How useful do you think Scenario planning is?
Question 4: Is Scenario planning, or would it be, useful for your strategic planning?
These two questions were intended to investigate how participants perceived the usefulness of Scenario Planning, first, on a general level; as well as, very specifically, for the strategic planning processes in their own business environment.
The difference in how these questions were answered is – in comparison – of interest:

In other words: the opinion among participants was divided with regards to the value of Scenario Work in the context of their very specific jobs and job environment. Not everyone could see a benefit from using the method.
In contrast, once that the focus was clearly set upon a company’s strategy work, the opinions shifted in favour of Scenario Work.

The combined results to these two questions pin point towards that Scenario Work, like every method, as a clear application area where it is of value and where it can be leveraged best. Unsurprisingly, this is process and time period within a company, where and when not just short, but also long and medium term strategies are (need be) developed. Equally clearly, the participants made the point that there is a ‘time, place and opportunity’ to use Scenario Planning, and that for many departments and accountabilities the method is either not applicable, not useful, or simply overkill given the very specific circumstances.

Conclusion

Looking at the combined results is interesting, because it clearly shows that even Scenario Work novices have quickly developed an intuitive grasp of the strengths, weakness and the value of the method.
This, in conclusion, is good news,